If there's global warming, where's the rain?

Two weeks ago, I posted a discussion entitled "Climate Change and dry June". I complained about the lack of rain for the month of June. Until a few years ago, when June comes, it's usually a wet-wet month. And until about a decade and a half ago, "wet season" in the Philippines and other tropical places officially starts on May. Back then, rice farmers were busy plowing their fields by May to start planting rice.

I've been into part-time farming for the past 15 years. And I try to be observant of weather pattern, like when the regular rains will start, when they will end, how sizzling summer is, how big and tall are our trees to give us natural umbrella from the sun's scorching heat, and so on. And I can say that this year, or at least last June, in terms of dryness and lack of rain, is the worst. It's now early July and I feel that the temperature and weather is like March with occassional clouds hanging up there that don't fall.

So this is climate change and global warming. I can personally agree with this. But it puzzles me, or perhaps I just forgot my high schoo earth science, but I ask myself this question and I can't seem to figure out the answer. If the earth is getting hotter, then there are lots of water evaporation, then there are lots of rain clouds up in the sky (I see them often especially during afternoon), and yet the clouds don't fall as rain, so where do the excess evaporated water go?

I read in the news that recently, heavy rains pounded and flooded southern Britain; also Pakistan and India, and before that Indonesia, etc. This could be the answer. Too much water evaporation elsewhere, and too much rain somewhere. Could it be that some of the excess water up in the sky escape to the atmosphere? It does not seem probable because of gravity.

Meanwhile, I see that many rice farmers, especially those who rely on rain for irrigation, complain of the lack of rains. Poverty incidence should increase in the coming months, when many lands are idle, food production is delayed while food consumption is increasing due to sheer population growth and momentum.

Up in many mountains in the country, poaching and cutting of trees, including small trees, by many poor people in public forest land continues, even worsening. Well naturally I guess. If you can't plant rice and other crops because of lack of rain, or in some cases, your crops are wiped out by too much rain and flash flood, and your family is getting hungry, the easiest way to find food and money is go up the mountains. Cut trees for firewood and charcoal, or for poles and housing materials, sell them, you have money. Then chase reptiles, birds, wild pigs and other animals in the mountains -- slowly converted from forest land to grassland because of annual cutting and burning -- and you have food for the family.

What is the government doing, the "owner" of 53 percent of the country's total land area, the public forest land, to protect the forest? Good question. On some cases, you will see them doing something good. But on many cases, you will get a bad answer: nothing. You will likely read in newspapers and see on tv, government officials, police and military generals, leading in various "tree planting" activities in many parts of the country every year. But you will seldom or never see them guarding the forests from endless poaching and cutting by hit-and-run rural poor.

If the rainy season is delayed, I just hope that the rainy season once it starts, will be extended. Hopefully until November and December. We may have a wet Christmas, but at least it helps the agriculture and food production sectors of society to produce more food.

Heat wave and global warming

I have read in the news that at least 38 people have already died in southern Europe this year because of the heat wave, maybe similar to, if not worse than, the 2003 heatwave. Among the countries severely affected are Greece, Italy, Romania, Albania and Serbia, especially the southern parts and provinces of these countries.

Last May, I have also read how the French people celebrated a seemingly “early summer” as they had cloudless skies for several days, when it should be springtime then and still a bit cold. At about the same dates, it was raining almost daily here in the Philippines, especially in Metro Manila and its neighboring provinces. I have thought that if there are lots of sun in Europe and perhaps the Atlantic side of the globe, there should be lots of rain elsewhere as the evaporated water have to fall as rain somewhere. So I have thought that it was the start of the regular rainy season for the country and other countries in tropical Asia. I was wrong.

June is about to end in 3 days, and the regular rainy season is not yet here. Yes there are lots of rainclouds everyday, especially in the afternoon, but there are only scattered showers, no heavy downpour yet. Climate change is showing to be worse than I have expected, at least for the first half of the year in this country.

Back to Europe. When I arrived in south Sweden, in the city of Lund in September 2003 to attend an international training on “sustainable agriculture”, our Swedish host there, Marie, told us that it was one of the finest summer they ever experienced in Sweden. Although she recognized that it was terrible in south and central Europe. Well, north Europe like the Scandinavian countries are lucky in seasons of severe heat and droughts. Nonetheless, a lot of indicators of global warming, like fast pace of melting ice in the north pole, are observed in these Scandinavian countries, especially in Greenland (part of Denmark).

I doubt that governments around the world can really arrest or slow down the bad effects of global warming. Many governments are characterized by wastes and profligacy, a characteristic that is least effective in the fight against global warming. People in their individual capacities, once aware of the bad environment ahead of them, will be more effective in slowing down the negative effects of global warming.

Climate change and dry June

Evidences of global warming and climate change continue to pile up around the world. The more "alarmist" the claims of global warming, the more harsh the measures to be imposed on people and societies. In fact, I will not be surprised if some alarmist guys will just propose doubling the petroleum taxes that motorists and the public have to pay to governments, and governments and the UN and other multilateral bodies will use the additional revenues to "clean" the world.

Here in the Philippines, Metro Manila in particular, we often have cloudy days, especially in the afternoon. But rains hardly come; even at this time of late June. Some showers or brief rains, and that's it. No monsoon rains or heavy downpour yet. When I visited our farm a week ago, the running water in the creek seemed fewer and smaller compared to those in the middle of last month. Sometimes I wish the downpour would come now, so that the clogged waterways in Metro Manila will be flushed. But I also don't want the downpour to come yet, until we have put more terraces in the hilly parts of our farm, to control or minimize the erosion of rich top soil made by earthworms and newly-decayed dried leaves and branches.

What I find discomforting though, is the humidty these days. It's cloudy, but it's hot. The past 2 weeks, I took bath about 4-5x a day. This week, I take 4 baths a day. Our electricity bill this month and the past 2 months have been increasing, as we have to use 2 electric fans in the sala during daytime.

Looking down and afar from the 25th floor of my sister's office here in Manila, I can see the width and expansion of Metro Manila. The mega-city is simply expanding and expanding. What used to be forest land a hundred years ago became rice land and other agri land 50 years later. Now those agri lands are gone. Houses, buildings, roads and parking spaces have taken over. So, what people used to complain as "deforestation" (meaning conversion of land from forest to non-forest uses, especially agricultural use), we can now call "deagriculturalization". What could be next, "dehousingzation" where lands are converted from housing to theme parks or memorial parks?

This afternoon, a thick and dark rain clouds are high up there in the sky. They've been there for the past 3 hours I think, but they don't fall. Yesterday and the other day, I think it was the same sight and phenomenon. In less than 2 weeks, it will be July, and the downpour are not yet in. Of course I hate to see flash floods in Metro Manila's roads; much less when I myself will be caught in high street flood waters. I've experienced it once, about 4 years ago, it was really scary and I swore I don't ever want to experience it again!

I hope there will be strong rains early next week, at least in our farm. I want the thick deposit of green algae and decayed leaves and branches in the stream near my treehouse be wiped and cleaned by a quick flash flood. Once they're gone, the stream and stones in river bed becomes clean. Then I can bring again my 9 months old daughter to the creek, and we'll frolick in the clean running water once again. I've brought her there more than a month ago, she liked it. :-)

Little Greenland

Over the weekend, I visited our farm in Bugallon, Pangasinan. This is about 200 kilometers north of Manila. On my way, I noticed that a big portion of the mountains in Mangatarem-Aguilar towns, also of Pangasinan (about km posts 170-180), have become “little Greenland”. That is, instead of dark green view (meaning thick forest), they’re now light green, indicating the mountains are now almost 100% grassland, with cogon as the dominant vegetation. This is one very clear example of deforestation – conversion or transformation of forest land into non-forest use, usually for agriculture or plainly abused and neglected.

This “little Greenland”, occupying probably several hundred hectares, actually change its color through months. At this time, June to October or November, they’re green in color – meaning these are newly sprouting cogons and grasses. By December to February or March, they become brown – meaning the grasses are now old and mature. You may call this scene as “little brownland”. Some people harvest the old grasses mainly for roofing. The cows don’t like to eat old grass anymore, so people who pasture their animals deliberately burn these grasses so that new grasses will grow. And so the grasses become black – meaning they got burned, either accidentally or deliberately. And so you may call this view “little blackland”.

The cycle of green-brown-black-green… can continue for many years. The large-scale cutting and clearing of forest trees, then burning them to give way for agriculture and/or pasture land for cattle, brought this cycle. Endemic forest species usually regenerate by themselves, without people planting them. Seeds blown by the wind or scattered by birds help these endemic forest species to grow by themselves. Problem comes when people would cut whatever new growth of trees, mainly for firewood or charcoal or for some household wood needs.

The Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), the government’s main bureaucracy to “manage and protect” forest land, is either undermanned and lazy, or corrupt and lazy. DENR people can always claim that with more than 15 million hectares of “public forest land” to manage, they do not have enough manpower to guard and protect said area. Well if they do not have enough manpower (especially dedicated manpower) to do its mandate, then the safe way to unburden itself is to accept that they can’t do it, better lease or privatize ownership of many of those “public forest land”. The point is to have someone accountable to make sure that each hectare of land is managed for forest or agricultural or commercial use, and not relegated to a severely degraded land producing neither forest or agricultural products and services.

Upland mangos sweeter than lowland mangos?

Mangos are ready for harvest usually after 120 days from the 1st day of spraying flower inducer using potassium nitrate (KNO3).

Our experience, and corroborated by other mango growers and sprayers, is that if your mango trees are in the lowlands, you need 120 days before harvest But if your mango trees are in the midlands to uplands, we can harvest 115 days, sometimes 112 days. Why? The fruits mature faster and start falling to the ground before 120 days, resulting in a potentially big crop loss.

I notice, and again corroborated by other people, that upland mangos are sweeter than lowland mangos. I have personally tasted mango fruits on the same barangay or village. One in the lowlands, after 120 days harvest; the other in the midlands (ours), 114 days. Result? Ours in the midlands are a lot sweeter than those in the former. Even other people who have tasted the same set of mangos said the same thing.

Still don't know the exact explanation why this is so...

Climate Change and Agriculture

While many literatures are exploring how agriculture should cope with climate change and global warming, it can be said too, that agriculture and large scale food production greatly contributed to climate change. There are nearly 7 billion people in the world now, and several billions more heads of cows, carabaos/water buffalos, pigs, chickens, other animals for human consumption. In the Philippines for instance, to have 4.2 million hectares of rice land, then another 1+ million hectares of corn and sugar land, we had to cut down forest land by the same area and convert them into rice land and corn land. We also had to cut down several million hectares more of forest land for vegetable production, pineapple and banana plantation, mango and other fruits plantation, animal grazing land, for human settlements, industrial and commercial lands, military reservation, etc. One can repeat the same estimation in any country – the large-scale conversion of forest land into agri land, residential land, commercial and industrial land, public infrastructure, and so on.

But we cannot stop food production, or we cannot stop building houses, schools and shops, roads and power plants. At the end of the day, we really have to live with climate change; the most we can do is to reduce the deterioration of climate change, but never really stop it.

While it is acceptable to say that conventional agricultural practices are more unsustainable compared to organic or ecological agriculture, demand for the former will just remain to be big. People would rather die 20 or 30 years from now for eating inorganically- produced foods, than die next month or next year for lack of money to buy expensive (due to limited supply) organic products.

One remote possibility someday, is that mankind will be forced to re-convert agricultural land back to forest land, hundreds of millions of hectares of them. And mankind will have to eat agri food from very small agri land, using greenhouse structures and genetically- engineered crops that use zero pesticides, zero chemical fertilizers, and produced on a mass-scale.

Green Revolution and Int'l Trade

Many rich countries of Asia are less concerned with "food self-sufficiency" now.
The trend is:

The poorer an economy is, the more urgent the issue of food self-sufficiency.
The richer an economy, the less urgent is food self-sufficiency.
Their wealth assures them of "food security".

You can see it in HK, Singapore, Brunei, middle-east countries, to a certain extent Korea and Japan. Their wealth plus easier trade among Asian countries assure these countries of sufficient food supply from abroad that can supplement their domestic production.

Middle-income countries like Thailand and China, even Vietnam, are now in the business of food exports. They supply the food needs of their richer neighbors in the continent, as well as other countries outside Asia. Thus, there is continuing, non-stop research and innovation in agriculture, from improved seeds to post-harvest and packaging technologies. Agri is becoming more and more knowledge-intensive, more science-based.

There are institutional and public policies that are supposed to help farmers and agriculture, but they tend to work against farming and agricultural development when you look deeper. One such policy, in the Philippines for instance, is "land reform".

The law on "comprehensive agrarian reform law" was made in 1988. The law stipulated a 10-year time-table. After 10 years, they extended it to another 10 years. Now, there is no more timetable, it will be a "continuing land reform". And this creates disincentives to some businessmen who want to put their money, expertise and technology in agriculture. Once you're done developing vast tracts of land for commercial agri plantation, there is a danger that the government's "Department of Land Reform" will come to you to get your land, subdivide it to the workers, and pay you a pittance, a small amount. This kind of uncertainty is one of the big reasons why commercial agricultural plantation in the Phils. is not well-developed.

More government investment in agriculture is not necessary. Maybe in infrastructure, like rural roads and bridges. But in technology (planting, marketing, packaging, etc.), it should be more private sector -- the network of producers (farmers) and buyers (traders, consumers, restaurants, importers, etc.) to determine the pricing, quality, quantity, and timing of agri production and marketing.

Canals vs. Terraces

Our farm is hilly and has a rolling terrain. There are a few flat lands, but the bigger area is hilly. It's in the middle of the flat lowlands, and the mountainous upland.

Uplands and hilly areas naturally have strong current of floodwaters during heavy rains by the simple explanation of gravitational pull. In order to protect hillsides, we facilitated pathways of rainwater by constructing canals. What I observe however, is that constructing canals also facilitate more soil erosion, aside from facilitating strong floods. Over the last rainy season alone last year, about 2-3 inches deep of soil along a canal path that we constructed have been eroded by the rain waters and occasional flash floods. Many shallow roots of trees previously covered by soil are now exposed.

So this year, we're changing track: instead of creating canals, we put up strong stone terraces, several "humps" along the waterpath, to (1) trap some of the eroded soil and organic matter (fallen leaves and branches, etc.), and (2) slow down the speed of water and flood, thereby help minimize the damages of flash floods.

Repeating this process through time, by constructing ever-higher terraces as more eroded soil and organic matter are trapped and deposited along those stone terraces, we expect the formerly low and depressed areas to be gaining height, and hilly areas should become flatter through time.

As to how strong those terraces should be so they can withstand strong flash floods, it's an experimental project that should vary from one place to another.

Utilizing this practice and similar soil erosion control technologies, the height or elevation of agricultural lands should be rising through time, as more organic matter are deposited in the soil every year. A "bonus" could be the emergence of new water springs in your area since those organic matter deposit in your land are trapping more rainwater, releasing the water hours, even days, after the rains have stopped.